Bernstein Forecasts Up to 34% Rally for Aadhar Housing, Home First, and Other Housing Stocks: Here Are Three Key Reasons.

Recent analysis from international brokerage firm Bernstein highlights a favorable outlook for affordable housing finance (AHFC) stocks, projecting potential rallies of up to 34% for several players in the sector, including Home First Finance, Aadhar Housing Finance, Aavas Financiers, Aptus Value Housing, and PNB Housing. In their latest report, Bernstein has set a target price of Rs 610 for Aadhar Housing Finance, suggesting an upside potential of approximately 28.9%. Aavas Financiers is projected at Rs 1,440, reflecting a modest upside of about 4.7%, while Aptus Value Housing Finance has a target of Rs 340, indicating a potential upside of 29.5%. Conversely, PNB Housing Finance is seen facing a potential downside of 11.4%, while Home First Finance has an optimistic target of Rs 1,450, implying an upside of 34.3%.

The report refers to a “turning tide” in the affordable housing sector, indicating that the earlier periods of moderation are giving way to improving business momentum and stable operating conditions. The 4QFY26 performance recorded a marked improvement in disbursement growth, which accelerated to 16% year-on-year compared to 8% in the preceding quarter. This positive trend indicates a recovery across key players in the sector and is also reflected in stabilizing AUM growth, although seasonally elevated run-off rates persist. Notably, balance transfer trends have remained stable, suggesting minimal competitive pressure within the sector.

Bernstein’s outlook emphasizes the attractive valuations within the AHFC segment, which remain near the lower end of historical ranges and are at a discount compared to larger diversified non-banking financial companies (NBFCs). With mortgage penetration in India being low, and significant potential within the underserved mass-market borrower segment, the medium-term outlook for affordable housing finance remains constructive. Additionally, the operational requirements of affordable housing lending support a competitive advantage for these players over larger banks, driving further optimism in the sector’s growth trajectory.

Source: The Economic Times

(Expert Note: This report was prepared by the Wealthova team.)