Trade Body Projects Soyameal Carry-Forward Stocks for 2026-27 to Reach 1.93 Lakh Tonnes

The Soyabean Processors Association of India (SOPA) has recently released updated supply and demand estimates indicating a significant rise in soybean meal carry-forward stocks for the oil year 2026-27, projected at 1.93 lakh tonnes, more than double the previous year’s figure of 0.68 lakh tonnes. In addition, soyabean stocks are anticipated to increase by approximately 8% to 8.31 lakh tonnes as of October 1. However, the forecasts are accompanied by a notable decline in Indian soyameal exports for the oil year 2025-26, which are expected to fall to 10 lakh tonnes, essentially halving from 20.23 lakh tonnes in the previous year, primarily due to rising domestic prices. Furthermore, domestic consumption has shown slight growth in both the feed sector and food sector, albeit accompanied by a decrease in overall production due to lower soybean availability.

This surge in carry-forward stocks and the decline in exports can have mixed implications for the common citizen and the market. Higher domestic prices indicate that consumers may face increased costs for soy-based products, impacting affordability in the food sector. For agricultural stakeholders, particularly farmers and processors, the outlook may be grim as reduced export opportunities could lead to excess supply domestically, potentially lowering prices further and affecting profitability. Conversely, a marginal increase in domestic consumption suggests robust demand in the feed and food sectors.

Looking ahead, the long-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic despite current challenges. The government and SOPA will need to assess the factors contributing to the decline in soybean production and exports, particularly the impact of adverse weather conditions and rising domestic prices. Future strategies may include advocating for improved agricultural practices to enhance yield and exploring trade opportunities to stabilize exports. Greater emphasis on sustainable farming practices and technological advancements in crop production may also be essential for fostering resilience in the soybean sector.

Source: The Hindu

(Expert Note: This report was independently prepared by the Wealthova Economy team.)