Gold Prices in India Just ₹2700 Shy of Record High Amid US Fed Rate Cut Speculation and Weak Dollar—Will They Soar to a New Peak?

Gold prices witnessed significant movement recently, as strong buying interest across global markets propelled rates higher for the fourth consecutive month. The February 2026 gold futures contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) finished at ₹1,29,599 per 10 gm, reflecting a 1.51% increase. This brings the commodity closer to its all-time high of ₹1,32,294 per 10 gm achieved in October 2025, as traders respond to shifting market sentiments driven by anticipated monetary policy changes.

The driving forces behind the recent uptick in gold prices include heightened expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, which are now pegged at 87%. This perception has been reinforced by dovish statements from several Fed officials and mixed U.S. economic data that indicate softening consumer indicators juxtaposed with a resilient labor market. Additionally, the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties stemming from U.S. political developments, particularly regarding immigration policies under the Trump administration, coupled with a declining U.S. dollar, have established a supportive environment for gold. Notably, a substantial surge in India’s gold imports, alongside seasonal demand driven by the wedding season, has further bolstered market dynamics.

Looking ahead, traders and investors can anticipate continued volatility in gold prices, with technical patterns suggesting potential further upside. Key resistance is identified at $4,250 per ounce, with a breakout potentially enabling a rise towards $4,400 per ounce. On the domestic front, if prices remain above ₹1,30,000 per 10 gm, they may aim for new heights near ₹1,34,000 per 10 gm. However, buyers should remain cautious given geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which could dampen optimism. Overall, the current environment appears conducive for safe-haven assets like gold while maintaining a focus on broader market indicators for strategic positioning.

Source: Market Source

(Expert Note: This report was independently prepared by the Wealthova Commodities team.)