India’s Tur Production Set to Decline to 20-25 Lakh Tonnes Despite Increase in Cultivation Area Due to Drought Effects

India’s tur production for the kharif 2026 season is projected to be between 20-25 lakh tonnes, significantly below the government’s target of 40 lakh tonnes. This reduction in output occurs despite an increase in cultivation area to 47.25 lakh hectares, attributed mainly to drought conditions affecting key producing states like Karnataka and Maharashtra. The crop outlook presentation by the India Pulses and Grains Association highlighted the critical effect of late-season moisture stress on yield, resulting in a reliance on imports to meet domestic demand.

This decline in tur output will directly impact consumers, particularly as annual consumption is estimated between 40 lakh tonnes and 45 lakh tonnes. As a consequence, India is expected to import around 10-12 lakh tonnes of tur this year, alongside maintaining buffer stocks of approximately 8-10 lakh tonnes. The market will need to adapt, with higher reliance on imports from regions like Myanmar and Africa, potentially affecting pricing and availability for consumers as the supply chain adjusts to these new dynamics.

Looking ahead, the government and the RBI may need to implement measures to stabilize the food supply chain, which could include improving storage capabilities and promoting alternative sources to mitigate reliance on weather-dependent crop outputs. Additionally, ongoing monitoring of field results will be crucial to ascertain the final productivity estimates, as well as to inform future agricultural policies aimed at enhancing resilience against climatic disruptions. Investors should stay alert to how these changes could influence agricultural commodity markets and inflationary pressures in the broader economy.

Source: The Hindu

(Expert Note: This report was independently prepared by the Wealthova Economy team.)