Adani Green Energy Shares Poised for 23% Surge as Axis Capital and Elara Launch Coverage

Adani Green Energy is preparing to enhance its renewable energy capacity dramatically, planning an increase of 2.5 times to reach 50 GW. This ambitious strategy has garnered the attention of major brokerages, with Axis Capital initiating coverage and assigning a target price of Rs 1,704, implying a potential upside of 23%. They project that the company will need a capital expenditure of Rs 2.1 lakh crore, which they believe will be fully financed through internal accruals, enabling stronger growth. Axis Capital anticipates that Adani Green’s net debt to EBITDA ratio will improve to 4.7x by FY32, down from 8.4x in FY26, predicting that the company will generate operational cash flows exceeding Rs 20,000 crore, sufficient for annual capacity expansions of over 12 GW.

Elara Capital has also entered the fray with a target price of Rs 1,502, indicating an upside of 9% and an ‘Accumulate’ rating. This brokerage estimates an EBITDA CAGR of around 30% and a PAT CAGR of approximately 42% during FY26-29, underpinned by robust capacity growth and improved operating leverage. Elara recognizes the opportunities presented by the increasing share of high-margin renewable assets, positioning the company favourably amid India’s swift transition towards renewable energy. Additionally, the firm is scaling its battery energy storage systems (BESS) capacity from 3.4 GWh to 10 GWh by FY27 and aims for a total of 50 GWh of storage by FY30.

Both brokerages foresee strong demand from commercial and industrial segments, notably data centers, driving the company’s growth trajectory. However, they caution that delays in project execution and grid connectivity could pose significant risks. Axis Capital’s report highlights a likely one-year delay in Adani Green’s target of reaching 45 GW of renewable energy capacity and associated infrastructure, primarily due to these connectivity challenges. Despite these potential hurdles, the overall outlook remains optimistic, driven by robust cash flow visibility and a strategic partnership with Adani Energy Solutions aimed at reducing exposure to price volatility in the merchant market.

Source: The Economic Times

(Expert Note: This report was prepared by the Wealthova team.)